Transport 2050

Even before COVID-19 arrived, online shopping and delivery has increasingly become a part of our lives. From Amazon to Uber Eats to Instacart, ordering goods and food with a smartphone is commonplace for most people.

But with the arrival of the public health crisis – along with social distancing practices and a major shift to working from home – we’ve seen a massive increase in online shopping and delivery. And with this trend have come many impacts, some good, some bad. So, what does this trend mean for the future of transportation?

How much more are people shopping online?

It’s clear that the pandemic has lit a fire on a trend that’s been increasing for years. Online shopping had been growing by one per cent per year, as a share of total retail sales. The pandemic has only accelerated this trend. According to Statistics Canada, online retail sales more than doubled between May 2019 between 2020, driven in part by more people staying at home and wanting to shop safely.

What’s more, the upcoming holiday season is expected to throw yet even more fuel to this fire. Thirty-five per cent of Canadians who’ve never shopped online before plan to buy their holiday gifts online. A recent survey by Deloitte found that the average shopper will spend half their holiday budget online this year.

What does it mean for transportation?

To meet this unprecedented demand, major shippers like DHL, Purolator, and UPS have hired thousands of new staff and added more vehicles.

This rise in delivery vehicles could mean changes to our traffic patterns. Though it’s uncertain if it would lead to more or less congestion – since conceivably more deliveries means less people driving to go shopping.

One thing we do know is that increasing deliveries is leading to increased competition for space in neighbourhood streets. A pressure that’s been felt acutely in places like New York City, where just two delivery companies racked up half a million parking violations in one year – and that was before the pandemic even began.

What’s more, demand for quick delivery – in some cases, same-day shipping – is putting new demands on shippers and on the transportation system. Including requiring using large trucks for “last mile” deliveries, where an alternative vehicle could be more suitable.

On top of more trucks trundling through neighbourhood streets, we’re also seeing increasing demand for curb space, leading to conflicts with parking and with cycling lanes. With more curbside delivery, on top of rising ride-hailing pick-ups and drop-offs, more multi-modal transportation options, including scooters and bike sharing stations, there’s growing competition for space on curbs and sidewalks.

And increasing delivery is not without environmental impact. Transportation is one of the country’s leading sources of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) – and a major source of air pollution. As cars become more efficient and green, freight carbon emissions are expected to surpass that from passenger vehicles by 2030.

What about the future?

Online shopping and neighbourhood delivery are popular for a reason. The convenience and time savings of ordering products online and receiving them in the safety and comfort of your own home is appealing. The pandemic has likely accelerated this trend by years.

It’s also forced us to consider how online shopping and delivery could be a bigger part of our transportation future.

So, what could that look like?

Major shippers are increasingly looking at ways of making delivery more efficient, cleaner, and quieter. That includes delivering in off-peak hours, shifting to smaller electric vehicles, and even testing e-cargo bike deliveries in major cities – like Purolator is doing in Montreal.

With a bump in deliveries, developers are increasingly integrating receiving lockers into buildings. TransLink – in partnership with PigeonBox – is testing smart lockers in major transit stations.

What about delivery drones? No longer a question of whether or not they’re coming, drones are already here.

Starship Technologies’ six-wheel robots have been delivering groceries to thousands of people in the British town of Milton Keynes for two years. Food delivery bots are also being tested in Toronto. Closer to home, in Vancouver, InDro Robotics has partnered with UBC and Canada Post to trial aerial delivery drones – capable of carrying up to 20 kilograms.

With increasing demand for online shopping – combined with innovation in goods movement and delivery – it’s clear that the future will look different than today. For its part, TransLink will be working with municipalities to reduce congestion stemming from urban freight. TransLink will also be piloting digitally managed curbs across the region and “e-freight hubs” where goods can be transferred to low emissions or active transportation options for “last mile” delivery.

And Transport 2050 will consider these trends and technologies so that the region can make the best of these changes for the regional transportation system.

Remote working, fad or future?

The pandemic has had a major impact on transportation, including prompting a massive shift towards working from home. At the outset of the public health crisis, one in ten Canadians traded their work commutes for a home office to ensure social distancing. With the remote-work trend presenting major challenges and opportunities for employers and employees alike, many are asking if mass tele-commuting will endure. Moreover, the remote-work trend is reshaping transportation, calling into question long held assumptions about how cities work and how we move.

Join TransLink’s Transport 2050 for a conversation about remote work and transportation. We’ll discuss the trends, impacts, and how remote work can fit into the future of regional transportation.

Panel

• Eve Hou, Manager of Policy, TransLink
• Patricia Mokhtarian, Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering and Associate Director, Institute of Transportation Studies, Georgia Tech
• Havi Parker-Sutton, Director, Sales - Enterprise Health & Crowns, Telus
• Leah Riley, Managing Director, Nelson\Nygaard

The global public health crisis has disrupted cities and transportation around the world. Beyond the immediate and acute shocks, the impacts are prompting many important questions: What does the future of transportation hold? How is the pandemic changing how we move? Which trends will stay, and which will go?

These are just a few of the considerations that transportation planners – internationally and in Metro Vancouver – are thinking about. Including for Transport 2050, Metro Vancouver’s new long-range strategy, which is under development. While we can be fairly certain that some transportation behaviours will return in time, the pandemic will likely have a lasting impact on cities.

To better understand these trends, we’ve put together a list of seven ways the pandemic is reshaping transportation.

Transportation 2.0: An Opportunity to Rebuild

At the outset of the pandemic, Tim Papandreou, leading transportation thinker (of Google X fame), penned an article in Forbes, “Is The Coronavirus The Transportation Industry’s Opportunity?” He argues that we’re in one of the biggest transportation experiments in over a generation. That now is the time to rethink how transportation is delivered so that we can fix systematic problems. Papandreou says that we should channel technology and policies to build more inclusive, sustainable, and economically viable transportation.

Transit is Essential for the Urban Recovery

The pandemic – if anything – has shown that transit is an essential public service that keeps cities running. Going further, during a time when some are questioning the very viability of cities, TransLink CEO Kevin Desmond says, “…cities will rise again – with a recovery driven by transit.” Beyond keeping basic mobility alive, and getting essential workers to work, transit is the key to the future sustainability of cities. But, Desmond argues, that we can’t make the mistakes of decades past in allowing transit to whither.

The Great Transportation Mode Shift

Early pandemic lockdowns and social distancing measures prompted a drop in transportation across the board. Walking, cycling, transit, driving, and mobility in general all fell.

1 Apple Mobility Data (which doesn’t include cycling rates): https://covid19.apple.com/mobility

Since then, the amount of driving (and levels of congestion) appear to have nearly rebounded to pre-pandemic levels. Active transportation, including walking and cycling have exploded in popularity. With bike shops struggling to keep up with demand, cities as diverse as London and Houston have seen cycling rates nearly double. Transit use, however, is still depressed. In Metro Vancouver, for example, transit ridership is hovering around 44 per cent of last year.

Changing Urban Space and Streets – Bikes, Buses, Pedestrians

Around the world, increased demand for walking, cycling, and safe places to gather have prompted cities to reimagine how they use public space. Likewise, increasing congestion have initiated changes to streets to help keep bus movement efficient and reliable. Find out how the pandemic is changing urban space by watching our video.

An Increased Focus on Equity

Not everyone enjoys the same level of access to transportation in cities. Whether by income, gender, or race, some groups face systemic barriers, including discrimination and racism. In many North American cities, these inequalities have been intensified by pandemic-induced service cuts. TransitCenter’s Mary Buchanan and Natalee Rivera outline that transit systems should implement a holistic approach to addressing inequities. This would include a focus on how costs and benefits are distributed, how decisions are made, and how past harms can be addressed.

Remote-working: An Explosion in Popularity

The need to social distance has prompted a large proportion of the workforce to begin working from home. Some workers have started to return to the office, resuming commuting. But it remains to be seen how many people will continue to work remotely post-pandemic. The big question is the work from home trend represents a small bump or a mountain of behaviour change. Watch our webinar, featuring speakers from TransLink, Georgia Tech, Nelson-Nygaard, and Telus, to learn more.

Retail Delivery and Urban Freight

With pandemic-induced lockdowns and an aversion to return to busy shopping locations, e-commerce has greatly increased. According to Statistics Canada, online shopping doubled in May and has remained persistently high. And more online shopping leads to more neighbourhood deliveries. Something New York City has been contending with, as its millions of package deliveries per day clog city streets and bring renewed conflict over scarce curb space.

To learn more, read our blog post, “The Pandemic Has Boosted Online Shopping and Delivery: What Does It Mean for Transportation?”

Putting It All Together

Taken together, all of these trends have led to one of the most impactful years in recent transportation history. As we plan the next 30 years of regional transportation, through Transport 2050, it’s important to learn from the impacts of the pandemic. Then, we can propel the changes that help us reach our regional goals – and reduce the negative affects of some of the worse impacts.

By: Kevin Desmond, CEO, TransLink

COVID-19 has dimmed the vibrancy of urban centres across the globe and spurred some to question whether we are witnessing “the end of cities.”

The pandemic has disrupted our lives in so many ways that it’s hard to predict what tomorrow will bring, let alone which changes will become permanent. However, I firmly believe that cities will rise again – with a recovery driven by transit.

After all, cities have been at the heart of every prosperous society. We are, as Harvard economist Edward Glaeser puts it, “an urban species,” living off the fruits of collaboration that cities – and public transportation – provide.

But the pandemic is testing the key tenets of what makes cities and transit work, namely bringing people together. Public transport is facing a crisis unlike any other since the late-1940s. What then took place over two decades – an 80 per cent erosion in transit ridership, brought on by the rise of the personal car and suburbia – was realized in just two weeks earlier this year, as COVID-19 emerged. In response, public health measures have kept people safe, but have stunted transit.

As a society, we can’t afford to repeat the same mistakes and allow transit to whither. Effective public transport is synonymous with equitable and sustainable urban development. Metro Vancouver was a leader on this front before the pandemic, with record-setting ridership that led North America. Notably, the sharpest increase in transit ridership was in communities outside the City of Vancouver.

Unfortunately, in the short-term, I believe the return of traffic congestion is inevitable. We have already witnessed a dramatic decline in transit ridership and a sharp rebound in traffic congestion. Early data show that driving in Metro Vancouver is already up by around four per cent compared to one year ago. I think we can all agree the future we don’t want is one with more congestion.

That’s why it’s critical that we rebuild public confidence in the safety of transit, through initiatives such as TransLink’s Safe Operating Action Plan and our Open Call for Innovation to improve cleanliness and safety in the system. Now is the time for our industry, worldwide and here in the Lower Mainland, to seek out and embrace innovations.

Looking beyond the immediate future, we need to contemplate whether the rapid societal changes initiated by this crisis, such as social distancing and tele-commuting, will persist. If so, that will have significant implications on transit ridership – a crucial consideration for TransLink, which depends heavily on fares for operating revenue.

Image courtesy of the United Nations

We also need to ask: how might our urban landscapes change? Already we’ve seen cities reimagining their streetscapes to create more space for pedestrians, cyclists, and restaurants. Many of these changes could positively improve the livability and vibrancy of our cities I believe we need to consider how transit can complement these measures and contribute to this new urban experience.

Time will tell which changes will hold, but TransLink welcomes conversations on how our region can increase efficiency while balancing diverse priorities throughout the transportation system. Improving the livability of Metro Vancouver is central to our mission and drives our organization every day.

As we help the region Build Back Better, I believe the region’s values – which we learned about through our largest-ever engagement in Transport 2050 – will endure and help inform the decisions we need to make together. Transport 2050 will also help us navigate the next 30 years, with its inevitable population and economic growth, and face the trio of challenges presented by affordability, congestion, and climate change.

Now, more than ever, we need to keep our bold vision for the future alive and create a vision for sustainable transportation in 2050. We need to advance our plans to build high-capacity transit and capital projects, which create jobs and economic activity for our region. And we need to continue working with partners to ensure there is a plethora of mobility options for all people in the Lower Mainland.

The pandemic will bend our trajectory, but ultimately, we remain committed to the same bold vision for transportation. In the end, vibrant public transportation isn’t just a symbol for the comeback of cities, it’s not even a key ingredient. Transit is urban recovery.

This summer, hundreds of thousands of you joined us at community events and workshops, online, and at the PNE Fair. You shared your values, concerns, and priorities for the future – telling us what matters most to you when you move around the region. You also shared thousands of your bold and creative ideas for the future of transportation.

The region has spoken, and this is what you said:

• You highly value the region’s parks and natural areas.
• You want convenient neighbourhoods.
• You want to know you’ll arrive on time.
• You agree that transit expansion and improvement should be a top priority.
• You want a transportation system that’s efficient, cost-effective, and environmentally friendly.
• Your top concerns are housing affordability and congestion.

Transport 2050 Expo: Join us for a ride into the future

For the past ten decades the Pacific National Exhibition (PNE) has showcased the best of Vancouver to the rest of Canada and the world. This summer, from August 17 – September 2, TransLink will be on site at the PNE Fair, bringing the past, present, and future of transportation to Metro Vancouver.

Join us at the Transport 2050 Expo, featuring a 3D “MicroCity” animated model of Metro Vancouver and an immersive virtual reality experience. Check out the Transport 2050 Engagement Bus and take our survey for a chance to win tickets to that night’s show.

But that's not all!

Double up your savings with Fair Fridays

Take transit to the PNE Fair on Fridays and receive 2-for-1 admission when you show your valid Compass Card or ticket at the gate. This offer does not apply for PNE children admission rates for ages 13 and younger.

Getting to the PNE

The PNE is located in Vancouver on Hastings Street at Windermere Street, just off Highway #1 West – Exit #26. Plan your journey here – TransLink is adding extra services to take you to the Fair at the PNE.

See you at the Fair!

ਆਪਣੀ ਕਹੀ ਗੱਲ 'ਤੇ ਕਹੋ ਕਿ ਤੁਸੀਂ ਕਿਵੇਂ ਚਲਦੇ ਹੋ ਇਸ ਬਾਰੇ ਤੁਸੀਂ ਕਦਰ ਕਰਦੇ ਹੋ. ਅਤੇ ਜੀਓ. ਤੁਹਾਡਾ ਇੰਪੁੱਟ ਅਗਲੇ 30 ਸਾਲਾਂ ਵਿੱਚ ਸਾਡੇ ਖੇਤਰ ਨੂੰ ਰੂਪ ਦੇਣ ਵਿੱਚ ਸਹਾਇਤਾ ਕਰੇਗਾ.

ਹੇਠਾਂ ਤੁਸੀਂ ਟ੍ਰਾਂਸਪੋਰਟ 2050 'ਤੇ ਬੈਕਗ੍ਰਾਉਂਡ ਦੀ ਜਾਣਕਾਰੀ ਦੀ ਸਮੀਖਿਆ ਕਰ ਸਕਦੇ ਹੋ, 22 ਸਤੰਬਰ ਤੋਂ ਪਹਿਲਾਂ ਇਨ-ਲੈਂਗੁਏਜ ਦੇ ਨੇੜੇ ਕੈਪਸ਼ਨਿੰਗ ਦੀ ਵਰਤੋਂ ਕਰਦੇ ਹੋਏ ਵੀਡੀਓ ਦੇਖ ਸਕਦੇ ਹੋ ਅਤੇ 5 ਮਿੰਟ ਦੇ ਗੁਮਨਾਮ ਸਰਵੇਖਣ ਨੂੰ ਪੂਰਾ ਕਰ ਸਕਦੇ ਹੋ.

ਕਿਰਪਾ ਕਰਕੇ ਸਰਵੇਖਣ ਵਿਚ ਦੱਸੇ ਗਏ ਦਿਸ਼ਾ ਨਿਰਦੇਸ਼ਾਂ ਦਾ ਪਾਲਣ ਕਰੋ ਅਤੇ ਆਪਣੇ ਪੂਰੇ ਸਰਵੇਖਣ ਨੂੰ transport2050@translink.ca ਤੇ ਈਮੇਲ ਕਰੋ.

• Backgrounder ਪਿਛਲੇਰੀ ਜਾਣਕਾਰੀ (Punjabi) (155 KB) (pdf)
• Survey ਸਰਵੇਖਣ (Punjabi)

ਸਾਡੇ ਖੇਤਰੀ ਕਦਰਾਂ ਕੀਮਤਾਂ ਅਤੇ ਦ੍ਰਿਸ਼ਟੀ. ਭਾਵੇਂ ਤੁਸੀਂ ਆਪਣੀ ਸਾਰੀ ਜ਼ਿੰਦਗੀ ਇੱਥੇ ਰਹੇ ਹੋ ਜਾਂ ਖੇਤਰ ਵਿਚ ਚਲੇ ਗਏ ਹੋ, ਮੈਟਰੋ ਵੈਨਕੂਵਰ ਰਹਿਣ ਅਤੇ ਕੰਮ ਕਰਨ ਲਈ ਇਕ ਖ਼ਾਸ ਜਗ੍ਹਾ ਹੈ. ਤਾਂ ਫਿਰ, ਤੁਸੀਂ ਕਿੱਥੇ ਰਹਿੰਦੇ ਹੋ ਇਸ ਬਾਰੇ ਤੁਸੀਂ ਸਭ ਤੋਂ ਵੱਧ ਕਦਰ ਕੀ ਕਰਦੇ ਹੋ?

ਤੁਹਾਡੀਆਂ ਆਵਾਜਾਈ ਦੀਆਂ ਤਰਜੀਹਾਂ. ਤੁਸੀਂ ਸਾਡੇ ਖੇਤਰ ਵਿਚ ਯਾਤਰਾ ਕਿਵੇਂ ਕਰਦੇ ਹੋ ਬਾਰੇ ਚੋਣਾਂ ਹਨ. ਤੁਸੀਂ ਆਪਣੇ ਰਾਹ ਯਾਤਰਾ ਕਰਨ ਦੀ ਚੋਣ ਕਿਉਂ ਕਰਦੇ ਹੋ? ਅਤੇ ਕੀ ਤੁਹਾਡੀਆਂ ਚੋਣਾਂ ਅਗਲੇ 10, 20 ਅਤੇ 30 ਸਾਲਾਂ ਵਿੱਚ ਬਦਲਣਗੀਆਂ? ਕੀ ਤੁਸੀਂ ਵੱਖਰੇ ਦੰਗ ਨਾਲ ਚਲਣਾ ਚਾਹੁੰਦੇ ਹੋ, ਅਤੇ ਪੂਰੇ ਖੇਤਰ ਵਿਚ ਆਵਾਜਾਈ ਬਾਰੇ ਤੁਸੀਂ ਕੀ ਸੋਚਦੇ ਹੋ?

ਆਵਾਜਾਈ ਦਾ ਭਵਿੱਖ. ਅਗਲੇ 30 ਸਾਲਾਂ ਵਿੱਚ ਮੈਟਰੋ ਵੈਨਕੂਵਰ ਕਿਵੇਂ ਬਦਲੇਗਾ? ਤੁਸੀਂ ਉਨ੍ਹਾਂ ਥਾਵਾਂ ਦੇ ਵਿਚਕਾਰ ਕਿਵੇਂ ਚੱਲੋਗੇ ਜਿਥੇ ਤੁਹਾਨੂੰ ਜਾਣ ਦੀ ਜ਼ਰੂਰਤ ਹੈ? ਇੱਕ ਆਦਰਸ਼ ਸੰਸਾਰ ਵਿੱਚ, ਕਿਹੜਾ ਤਬਦੀਲੀਆਂ - ਵੱਡੇ ਅਤੇ ਛੋਟੇ - ਹਰੇਕ ਲਈ ਮੈਟਰੋ ਵੈਨਕੂਵਰ ਦੀ ਆਵਾਜਾਈ ਪ੍ਰਣਾਲੀ ਨੂੰ ਬਿਹਤਰ ਦੰਗ ਨਾਲ ਕੰਮ ਕਰਨ ਵਿੱਚ ਸਹਾਇਤਾ ਕਰਨਗੇ?

你的日常交通路程和生活方式，将由你表态！你的意见将会塑造未来三十年的社区前景。

你可以查阅以下Transport 2050 的背景资料，观看设有不同语言字幕的影片，并于九月二十二日前填写不记名问卷调查。请根据问卷内的指示以电邮方式提交你的问卷至 transport2050@translink.ca

• Backgrounder 背景资料 (Simplified Chinese) (213 KB) (pdf)
• Survey 调查 (Simplified Chinese)

我们地区的核心价值和理念。大温地区是一个独特之地。你对你的居住地区有什么最为看重？

你的交通首选。你有权选择如何在大温地区内往返。什么因素会影响你现实的交通方式？在未来二十、三十年，你会改变你的交通方式吗？有没有打算改变现在的模式？你对现时大温的交通系统有什么见解？

交通系统未来。大温地区在未来三十年会有什么转变？你将会如何决定你的路程？在理想的情况下，你认为什么大小的转变能使现时大温交通系统变得更美好？

你的日常交通路程和生活方式，由你表態！你的意見將會塑造未來三十年的社區前程。

以下你可以查閱Transport 2050 的背景資料，觀看設有不同語言字幕的影片，並於九月二十二日前填寫匿名問卷調查。請根據問卷內的指示以電郵方式提交你的問卷至transport2050@translink.ca

• Backgrounder 背景資料 (Traditional Chinese) (205 KB) (pdf)
• Survey 調查 (Traditional Chinese)

我們地區的核心價值和理念。大溫地區是一個獨特之地。你對你的居住地區有甚麼最為看重？

你的交通首選。你有權選擇如何在大温地區內往返。甚麼因素影響你選擇現時的交通方式？在未來二十、三十年，你會改變你的交通方式嗎？有沒有打算改變現在的模式？你對現時大温的交通系統有甚麼見解？

運輸未來。大温地區在未來三十年會有甚麼轉變？你將會如何決定你的路程？在理想的情況下，你認為甚麼大小的轉變能使現時大温運輸系統變得更美好

Section 1: Our regional values and vision

Whether you’ve been here all your life or moved to the region, Metro Vancouver is a special place to live and work. So, what do you most value about where you live?

Section 2: Values & Vision

You have choices about how you travel through our region. Why do you choose to travel the way you do? And will your choices change over the next 10, 20, and 30 years? Do you want to move differently, and what do you think about movement around the region as a whole?